Franklin, New Hampshire 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

113
FXUS61 KGYX 231823
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
223 PM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes needed for this update. Still expecting a drier
rest of the day and Wednesday, with a more active Thursday
afternoon and Friday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Low pressure continues to exit the region this afternoon,
with overcast skies and an isolated shower possible in the
evening. Skies clear for Wedensday morning with dry weather
likely to persist through Thursday afternoon.

2. Next chance for widespread rainfall arrives Thursday night
followed by a chance of thunderstorms Friday afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...

Satellite and radar imagery this afternoon shows two low
pressure systems over the east coast. Both of these systems have
moved offshore along with their respective quasi-strateform rain
shields. Pressure will remain low this afternoon, allowing for some
very weak instability over the interior. This environment could
allow for the development of a couple small showers over the region,
though it is unlikely they would develop into thunderstorms. This is
because despite modest instability at the surface, low-level and mid-
level lapse rates teeter between unstable and conditionally unstable
according to forecast soundings. This in turn will limit the upward
ascent of air parcels over the region making it fairly difficult for
any shower to strengthen further.

Wednesday will feature a similar setup convectively to this
afternoon with one key difference: skies will clear in the morning
and allow for better diurnal heating and mixing. The extra diurnal
heating is likely to allow for a more unstable environment Wednesday
afternoon, with CAPE of 1000J possible. Despite a more robust
convective environment, any forcing that would allow for sufficient
ascent is still with the aforementioned low, progged to be over
northern New Brunswick by this time. So the forecast challenge for
tomorrow boils down to how far southwest some of the wraparound
showers make it. CAMS suggest that sufficient forcing makes it
southward and just crosses the Canadian border by Wednesday
afternoon. With this in mind, it can not be ruled out that some
campers in the Rangeley lakes region could see a storm or two but
storms will likely lose steam quickly after they cross into
Western Maine from Quebec.

Wednesday night and into Thursday, high pressure moves in and will
allow for dry and tranquil conditions through Thursday afternoon. A
low pressure system approaching from the west may allow for the
development of some scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...

Global models are in good agreement with a 500mb shortwave and
associated surface low pressure approaching New England Thursday
night. Increasing moisture and lift associated with these
features is expected to allow a steadier rain to overspread the
area from west to east overnight (with fog also possible) that
will last into Friday morning or afternoon. Once this rainfall
exits, there will be an opportunity for some degree of clearing
and temperatures to warm up to bring enough instability for
thunderstorms to develop ahead of the cold front. Right now, the
higher chances will be across NH and into far western ME with
onshore flow keeping things more stable farther east into Maine.
Shear also looks sufficient enough to support strong to severe
storms, but timing of the front is key as well along with the
amount of instability. Ensemble means suggest 0.50" to 0.75" of
rain is possible, but thunderstorms could push those amounts
higher Friday afternoon. Flow doesn`t look overly strong
behind the front, so there will probably be fog in some areas
Friday night.

Another low pressure passes to the south on Saturday as surface high
pressure begins to build toward New England this weekend. This will
bring overall drier conditions for the weekend, but a couple of
waves aloft passing through in the northwest flow aloft could bring
scattered showers and isolated storms as daytime instability builds
during the afternoon to early evening hours each day.

Upper-level ridging strengthens to our west over the Great Lakes
early next week as surface high pressure continuing to build into
New England. This leaves us in a northwest flow pattern aloft,
it`s possible waves riding along the periphery of the ridge
bring additional chances for showers and storms into early next
week. These waves are very difficult with both timing and
location, so the low NBM PoPs of 20-30% for Mon-Tues will
suffice for now. Otherwise, there`s a signal in the ensembles
for warmer temperatures mid 80s to near 90 possible.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Restrictions are expected to generally improve through the
evening with most sites returning to VFR. However, some fog may
allow for restrictions to return overnight, especially along the
coast. Fog lifts out Wednesday morning with VFR expected through
the remainder of the day. VFR continues through Wednesday night
and into the first half of the day Thursday. Scattered
thunderstorms will allow for MVFR restrictions Thursday
afternoon.

Outlook:
Thursday night-Friday: Restrictions ranging from MVFR to LIFR are
possible as low pressure and a cold front approach the region.
Thursday night into the first part of Friday could me more of a
steady rain with fog and low ceilings, and precipitation may become
more showery in nature Friday afternoon with a few storms also
possible.

Friday night: Patchy fog may bring additional IFR restrictions but
confidence is low.

Saturday-Sunday...Mainly VFR. Afternoon scattered showers and
isolated storms may bring TEMPO MVFR restrictions each day.

&&

.MARINE...
Light and variable winds are expected. Winds will generally be
out of the west tonight through Thursday morning. Seas of 2-
4ft expected through this timeframe.

Thursday night-Tuesday...Low pressure approaches Thursday night and
Friday with a cold front either crossing late Friday or Friday
night. Ahead of this front, there may be fog over the waters as well
as increasing chances for rain showers. However, SCA conditions are
not expected. Another low pressure is expected to pass south of the
waters Saturday into Saturday night, but otherwise high pressure
builds across the waters later this weekend into early next week,
likely keeping conditions under SCA levels.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Palmer/Combs